Measurement

Scans, matchback, holdouts.
The whole picture.

Incremental pipeline is the number worth funding, and the holdout is how you find it. QR scans and landing pages catch direct response, CRM matchback ties meetings to mailed accounts, and account-level holdouts measure lift.

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Report · Enterprise drip · Q2

+27% lift

Mailed accounts opened opportunities at 8.9% vs 7.0%. The plausible range is +9% to +48%.

holdout, assigned by account20% of accounts
directly responded14 meetings
influenced, labeled inference41 meetings
incremental vs holdout+22 meetings

Intention to treat. Undelivered pieces stay in treatment. This report is a worked example; yours comes from your holdout.

The four buckets

Every result, labeled for what it is.

Attribution goes wrong when inference is dressed up as evidence. Every result in a Sincerely report lands in one of four buckets, and the label travels with the number.

Directly respondedA QR scan or landing-page visit from the piece itself. Evidence.evidence
InfluencedA meeting or reply after a piece landed, in the window you set. Inference, and labeled as such.inference
MatchedCRM matchback ties opportunities to mailed accounts. Inference, and labeled as such.inference
IncrementalLift against the account-level holdout. The number that earns next quarter’s budget.the number

And when the sample is too small for a holdout, we say so before you spend. Small campaigns get descriptive numbers, honestly labeled, and pool into a program-level report over time.

The statistics

The same rigor you’d demand
from an A/B test.

Direct mail attribution has a deserved reputation for hand-waving. The fix is not a prettier dashboard; it is running the channel as a designed experiment.

Account-level randomizationThe holdout is assigned by account, not contact, so mailing one stakeholder never contaminates a held-out colleague on the same buying committee.
Intention to treatUndelivered pieces stay in the treatment group. No survivorship bias from quietly dropping the mail that never arrived.
Confidence intervalsEvery lift estimate ships with its plausible range. +27% means +9% to +48%, and the report prints both, not just the flattering midpoint.
Statistical powerBefore you spend, we check whether your audience is large enough to detect the lift you care about. Below the minimum detectable effect, we tell you, and the report stays descriptive.
Attribution windowsInfluenced and matched results count only inside a window you set, and they are labeled inference. Evidence and inference never blend into one number.

Write to us

Say it on paper. Prove it in pipeline.

Launch a pilot to your top accounts: research-backed pieces your reps approve, follow-up timed to delivery, and an account-level holdout that reports what the channel actually created.

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Setup takes an afternoon. Delivery takes days, because paper travels. The report takes a sales cycle, because pipeline does too.

Write to us: adam@trysincerely.com

Sincerely,